Studying Volatility Risk Transmission in Automatable Supply Chain Companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Financial Management,Central Tehran Branch,Islamic Azad University,Tehran,Iran

2 Department of Financial Management,Central Tehran Branch,Islamic Azad University,Tehran,Iran (Corresponding Author)

Abstract

Supply chain companies are one of the most important elements of the economy of each country. These companies play an important role in the expansion and activities of other companies through the provision of capital, customers, credit and even raw materials and technology. Therefore, the main goal of this research was to examine the impact of contagion of return and volatility in the return of the automobile companies supply chain listed in Tehran Stock Exchange.
For doing so, Iran Khodro and SAIPA automobile supply chain companies were investigated separately. In addition to the main companies (Iran Khodro and SAIPA), three other supply chain companies were selected for research. The results of the multivariate GARCH model applied for daily data in time interval of 2013/3/21 to 2017/3/21 showed that both the return and the volatility of stock returns of SAIPA and Iran Khodro supply chain companies affected the return and volatility of these two companies stock return. This finding confirms the research hypothesis providing that the return and volatility of Iran Khodro and SAIPA companies are affected by these companies supply chain. In this research the risk contagion resulting from fluctuations in return has also been examined. It can be interpreted that the risk is contagious as the same as the different shares return.

Keywords


1)       Baba, Y., R.F. Engle, D. Kraft and K.F. Kroner (1985), Multivariate simultaneous generalized ARCH, Unpublished manuscript, Department of Economics, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA.
2)       Engle, R.F. and K.F. Kroner (1995), Multivariate simultaneous generalized ARCH, Econometric Theory, 11, 122-150.
3)       Baba Y., Engle R. F., Kraft D, Kroner K. Multivariate simultaneous generalized ARCH. Unpublished manuscript, University of California- San Diego; 1990.
4)       Bauwens L, Laurent S, Rombouts J. V. K. (2016), Multivariate GARCH Models: A Survey. Journal of Applied Econometrics; 21: 79-109.
5)        Bernanke, B. S., & Kuttner, K. N. (2015),What explains the stock market’s reaction to Federal Reserve policy? Journal of Finance; 60: 1221–1257.
6)        Bollerslev, T.( 2008),  Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. Journal of Econometrics; 31: 307–327.
7)        Bollerslev, T. (1990), Modeling the coherence in short run nominal exchange rates: A multivariate generalized ARCH approach. Review of Economics and Statistics; 72: 498–505.
8)        Bollerslev T, Engle R. F, Wooldridge J. M.( 2008), A capital asset pricing model with time varying covariance. Journal of Political Econom; 96: 116–131.
9)       Brooks C, Henry O. (2000), T Linear and Non-linear Transmission of Equity Return volatility: evidence from the US, Japan and Australia, Economic modeling; 17: 497-513.
10)    Chou R. Y. Lin J, Wu, C. Modeling the Taiwan Stock Market and International linkages, Pacific Economic Review; 4(3): 305-320
11)     Engle R.( 1999), Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of the U.K. inflation. Econometrica 2012; 50: 987–1008.10.
12)    Engle R, Kroner K. (1995), Multivariate simultaneous generalized ARCH. Econometric Reviews; 11: 122-150.
13)    Ewing B. T.( 2012), The transmission of shocks among S&P indexes. Applied Financial Economics; 12: 285-290.
14)    Ewing B. T, Forbes S. M, Payne J. E.( 2014), The effects of macroeconomic shocks on sector-specific returns. Applied Economics; 35: 201- 207.
15)    Fornari F, Monticelli C, Pericoli M, Tivegna M.( 2002),  The impact of news on the exchange rate of the lira and long-term interest rates. Economic Modelling; 19: 611-639.
16)    Goeij P. D, Marquering W. (2004), Modeling the Conditional Covariance Between Stock and Bond Returns: A Multivariate GARCH Approach, Journal of Financial Econometrics; 2(4): 531-564.
17)    Harju K, Hussain S. M.( 2008), Intraday Return and Volatility spillovers Across International Equity Markets, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics; (22): 205-220.
18)    Hassan S Malik F.( 2016),  Multivariate GARCH modeling of sector volatility transmission The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance; 47: 470–480
19)    Kanas A. (2012),Volatility Spillovers Across Equity Markets: European Evidence, Applied Financial Economics; 8: 245-256
20)    Kearney C, Patton, A. J. (2000), Multivariate GARCH modeling of exchange rate volatility transmission in the European monetary system. Financial Review; 41: 29–48.
21)    Kodres L. E, Pritsker M. (2002), A rational expectations model of financial contagion. Journal of Finance; 57: 768-799.