Impact of Herding on Buy & Hold, Momentum & Contrarian Strategy in Tehran Stock Exchange

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Financial Engineering Group, Industrial and Systems Engineering Faculty, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

2 Financial Engineering Group, Industrial and Systems Engineering Faculty, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran (Corresponding Author)

Abstract

This paper aims to study the effect of herding on buy and hold, momentum and contrarian strategy. In this research, the cross-sectional absolute deviation is used to identify herding behavior in twenty industries in Tehran stock market. It is observed that the down and boom periods had more industries with herding. Moreover, the weak herding is more common than the strong herding in this market. In addition, the results showed that in all studied strategies, strong herding had a negative effect on industries return in every period except in the bust periods. On the other side, industries with the weak herding had more return than industries without herding in all periods except the bust period.

Keywords


1)     Bakhtiari, M., Nikoumaram, H., Roudposhti, F. R., & Torabi, T. (2019). Assessing the Behavioral Reaction of Investors to the Price Change Using the Speed of Price Adjustment Approach to the General Information and Its Relation with Future Return. International Journal of Finance and Managerial Accounting, 3(12) 15-27.
2)     Banerjee, A. V. (1992). A simple model of herd behavior. The quarterly journal of economics, 107(3), 797-817.
3)     BenSaïda, A. (2017). Herding effect on idiosyncratic volatility in US industries. Finance Research Letters, 23, 121-132.
4)     Bikhchandani, S., Hirshleifer, D., & Welch, I. (1992). A theory of fads, fashion, custom, and cultural change as informational cascades. Journal of Political Economy, 100(5), 992-1026.
5)     Bikhchandani, S., & Sharma, S. (2000). Herd Behavior in Financial Markets. IMF Staff Papers, 47(3), 279-310. doi:10.2307/3867650
6)     Bondt, D., Werner, F., & Thaler, R. H. (1987). Further evidence on investor overreaction and stock market seasonality. The Journal of finance, 42(3), 557-581.
7)     Bondt, W. F., & Thaler, R. (1985). Does the stock market overreact? The Journal of finance, 40(3), 793-805.
8)     Brock, W. A., & Hommes, C. H. (1997). A rational route to randomness. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1059-1095.
9)     Brock, W. A., & Hommes, C. H. (1998). Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model. Journal of Economic dynamics and Control, 22(8-9), 1235-1274.
10)  Brown, N. C., Wei, K. D., & Wermers, R. (2013). Analyst recommendations, mutual fund herding, and overreaction in stock prices. Management Science, 60(1), 1-20.
11)  Chang, E. C., Cheng, J. W., & Khorana, A. (2000). An examination of herd behavior in equity markets: An international perspective. Journal of Banking & Finance, 24(10), 1651-1679.
12)  Christie, W. G., & Huang, R. D. (1995). Following the pied piper: Do individual returns herd around the market? Financial Analysts Journal, 51(4), 31-37.
13)  Clements, A., Hurn, S., & Shi, S. (2017). An empirical investigation of herding in the US stock market. Economic Modelling, 67, 184-192.
14)  Conrad, J., & Kaul, G. (1998). An anatomy of trading strategies. The Review of Financial Studies, 11(3), 489-519.
15)  Danie, K., Hirshleifer, D., & Subrahmanyam, A. (1998). A Theory of Overconfidence, Se1f-Attribution, and Security Market Under-and Overreaction. Journal of Finance, 53, 1839-1885.
16)  Demirer, R., Lien, D., & Zhang, H. (2015). Industry herding and momentum strategies. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 32, 95-110.
17)  Fang, H., Shen, C.-H., & Lee, Y.-H. (2017). The dynamic and asymmetric herding behavior of US equity fund managers in the stock market. International Review of Economics & Finance, 49, 353-369.
18)  Feng, L., & Seasholes, M. S. (2004). Correlated trading and location. The Journal of finance, 59(5), 2117-2144.
19)  Froot, K. A., Scharfstein, D. S., & Stein, J. C. (1992). Herd on the street: Informational inefficiencies in a market with short‐term speculation. The Journal of finance, 47(4), 1461-1484.
20)  Galariotis, E. C., Rong, W., & Spyrou, S. I. (2015). Herding on fundamental information: A comparative study. Journal of Banking & Finance, 50, 589-598.
21)  Gebka, B., & Wohar, M. E. (2013). Causality between trading volume and returns: Evidence from quantile regressions. International Review of Economics & Finance, 27, 144-159.
22)  Grinblatt, M., & Titman, S. (1989). Mutual fund performance: An analysis of quarterly portfolio holdings. Journal of business, 393-416.
23)  Guerard Jr, J. B., Markowitz, H., & Xu, G. (2015). Earnings forecasting in a global stock selection model and efficient portfolio construction and management. International Journal of Forecasting, 31(2), 550-560.
24)  Hey, J. D., & Morone, A. (2004). Do markets drive out lemmings—or vice versa? Economica, 71(284), 637-659.
25)  Hirshleifer, D. (2001). Investor psychology and asset pricing. The Journal of finance, 56(4), 1533-1597.
26)  Hirshleifer, D., Subrahmanyam, A., & Titman, S. (1994). Security analysis and trading patterns when some investors receive information before others. The Journal of finance, 49(5), 1665-1698.
27)  Hong, H., Lim, T., & Stein, J. C. (2000). Bad news travels slowly: Size, analyst coverage, and the profitability of momentum strategies. The Journal of finance, 55(1), 265-295.
28)  Hong, H., & Stein, J. C. (1999). A unified theory of underreaction, momentum trading, and overreaction in asset markets. The Journal of finance, 54(6), 2143-2184.
29)  Huang, T.-C., Lin, B.-H., & Yang, T.-H. (2015). Herd behavior and idiosyncratic volatility. Journal of business research, 68(4), 763-770.
30)  Hvidkjaer, S. (2006). A trade-based analysis of momentum. The Review of Financial Studies, 19(2), 457-491.
31)  Indārs, E. R., Savin, A., & Lublóy, Á. (2019). Herding behaviour in an emerging market: Evidence from the Moscow Exchange. Emerging Markets Review, 38, 468-487.
32)  Jahanmiri, M. H., Roodposhti, F. R., & Nikoomaram, H. (2017). Is the 52-high-price Strategy Explained by Behavioral Finance? (Uncertainty Effect).   International Journal of Finance and Managerial Accounting, 2(6), 11-21.
33)  Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to buying winners and selling losers: Implications for stock market efficiency. The Journal of finance, 48(1), 65-91.
34)  Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (2001). Profitability of momentum strategies: An evaluation of alternative explanations. The Journal of finance, 56(2), 699-720.
35)  Keynes, J. M. (1936). The general theory of money, interest and employment. Reprinted in The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, 7.
36)  Kuran, T., & Sunstein, C. R. (1999). Availability cascades and risk regulation. Stanford Law Review, 683-768.
37)  Lakonishok, J., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1992). The impact of institutional trading on stock prices. Journal of Financial Economics, 32(1), 23-43.
38)  Lee, C.-C., Chen, M.-P., & Hsieh, K.-M. (2013). Industry herding and market states: evidence from Chinese stock markets. Quantitative Finance, 13(7), 1091-1113.
39)  Li, T. (2016). Intra-industry momentum and product market competition around the world. Review of Development Finance, 6(1), 16-25.
40)  Litimi, H., BenSaïda, A., & Bouraoui, O. (2016). Herding and excessive risk in the American stock market: A sectoral analysis. Research in International Business and Finance, 38, 6-21.
41)  Madanchi, Z. M., Nikoomaram, H., & Saeedi, A. (2017). Overreaction & Under reaction: Evaluating performance and Speed of Adjustment Investment Strategies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). International Journal of Finance and Managerial Accounting, 2(6), 103-120.
42)  Mobarek, A., Mollah, S., & Keasey, K. (2014). A cross-country analysis of herd behavior in Europe. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 32, 107-127.
43)  Nnadi, M., & Tanna, S. (2017). Accounting analyses of momentum and contrarian strategies in emerging markets. Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, 1-21.
44)  Nofsinger, J. R., & Sias, R. W. (1999). Herding and feedback trading by institutional and individual investors. The Journal of finance, 54(6), 2263-2295.
45)  Roy, R., & Shijin, S. (2018). The nexus of anomalies-stock returns-asset pricing models: The international evidence. Borsa Istanbul Review.
46)  Sadka, R. (2006). Momentum and post-earnings-announcement drift anomalies: The role of liquidity risk. Journal of Financial Economics, 80(2), 309-349.
47)  Shiller, R. J. (2007). Understanding recent trends in house prices and home ownership. Retrieved from
48)  Singh, V. (2013). Did institutions herd during the internet bubble? Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 41(3), 513-534.
49)  Tan, L., Chiang, T. C., Mason, J. R., & Nelling, E. (2008). Herding behavior in Chinese stock markets: An examination of A and B shares. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 16(1-2), 61-77.
50)  Xie, T., Xu, Y., & Zhang, X. (2015). A new method of measuring herding in stock market and its empirical results in Chinese A-share market. International Review of Economics & Finance, 37, 324-339.
51)  Yan, Z., Zhao, Y., & Sun, L. (2012). Industry herding and momentum.
52)  Yao, J., Ma, C., & He, W. P. (2014). Investor herding behaviour of Chinese stock market. International Review of Economics & Finance, 29, 12-29.
53)  Zheng, D., Li, H., & Zhu, X. (2015). Herding behavior in institutional investors: Evidence from China’s stock market. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 32, 59-76