Impact of Direct and Indirect Oil Shocks on Iran's Energy-intensive industries stock returns (Appling Simultaneous Equation System on Panel Data)

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities, Persian Gulf University, Bushehr, Iran. (Corresponding Author)

2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Marine Economics and Management, Khorramshahr university of Marine Sciences and Technology, Khorramshahr, Khuzestan, Iran

3 Assistant professor, Islamic Azad University, Islamshahr Branch, Islamshahr, Iran

Abstract

Regarding the fact that each country might be a net oil seller or net buyer, and considering its large share in the whole economy, the price of this commodity as well as its volatility could affect all economies around the world.  The impact of oil price volatility on the economy is seemed to be more dominant in Iran rather than any other developed or emerging economies, especially in recent years. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of direct and indirect oil shocks on the stock returns in the selected energy companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange.
The reason behind choosing such industries is that energy prices play an important role in the production cost. For this reason, we used monthly basis data spanning the period starting from April 2009 to July 2019. Appling three-stage least squares (3SLS) and Panel data, the direct effect of oil shocks on stock returns found to be negative even though those for indirect effect were positive

Keywords


1)     Aghaei, M., rezagholizadeh, M. (2017). Investigation the Direct and Indirect Impact of Energy Consumption in Selective Sectors on Ppoverty and Inequality in Iran. Iranian Energy Economics, 5(Summer), 1-51.
2)     Arouri, M. E. H., Jouini, J., & Nguyen, D. K. (2011). Volatility spillovers between oil prices and stock sector returns: Implications for portfolio management. Journal of International Money and Finance, 30(7), 1387e1405.
3)     Bordbar N, Heidari E. (2017) The Effect of World Oil Price Fluctuations on the Return of the Energy Intensive Industries Stock in Iran. jemr. 7 (27) :177-205.
4)     Boyer, M. M., & Filion, D. (2009). Common and fundamental factors in stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies. Energy Economics, 29, 428e453.
5)     Broadstock, D. C., Cao, H., & Zhang, D. (2012). Oil shocks and their impact on energy related stocks in China. Energy Economics, 34(6),1888e1895.
6)     Chen, S. S. (2010). Do higher oil prices push the stock market into bear territory? Energy Economics, 32(2), 490e495.
7)     Ciner, C.( 2012). Oil and stock returns: frequency domain evidence. J. Int. Financ. Markets Inst. Money 23, 1–11.
8)     Cunado, Juncal & Perez de Gracia, Fernando.( 2014). "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: Evidence for some European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 365-377.
9)     Davidson, R., & MacKinnon, J. (2004). Econometric theory and methods. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
10)  Driesprong, G., Jacobsen, B., & Maat, B. (2008). Striking oil: Another puzzle? Journal of Financial Economics, 89(2), 307e327.
11)  El-Sharif, I., Brown, D., Burton, B., Nixon, B., & Russell, A. (2005). Evidence on the nature and extent of the relationship between oil prices and equity values in the UK. Energy Economics, 27(6), 819e830.
12)  Elyasiani, E., Mansur, I., & Odusami, B. (2011). Oil price shocks and industry stock returns. Energy Economics, 33(5), 966e974.
13)  Engle, R. F., & Ng, V. K. (1993). Measuring and testing the impact of news on volatility. Journal of Finance, 48, 1749e1778.
14)  Faff, R. W., & Brailsford, T. J. (1999). Oil price risk and the Australian stock market. Journal of Energy Finance & Development, 4(1), 69e87.
15)  Filis, G., Chatziantoniou, I. (2013). Financial and monetary policy responses to oil price shocks: evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Rev. Quant. Finance Account. 1–21.
16)  Fotros, M., Hoshidari, M. (2016). The Effect of Crude Oil Price Volatility on Volatility in Tehran Stock Market GARCH Multivariate Approach. Iranian Energy Economics, 5(spring), 147-177.
17)  Gogineni, S. (2010). Oil and the stock market: An industry level analysis. Financial Review, 45(4), 995e1010.
18)  Hamilton, J. D. (1983). This is what happened to the oil pricemacroeconomy relationship. Journal of Monetary Economics, 38(2), 215e220.
19)  Hammoudeh, S., & Li, H. (2005). Oil sensitivity and systematic risk in oil-sensitive stock indices. Journal of Economics and Business, 57(1), 1e21.
20)  Henriques, I., & Sadorsky, P. (2008). Oil prices and the stock prices of alternative energy companies. Energy Economics, 30(3), 998e1010.
21)  Huang, R. D., Masulis, R. W., & Stoll, H. R. (1996). Energy shocks and financial markets. Journal of Futures Markets, 16(1), 1-27.
22)  Keshavarz Haddad, GH., Manavi, S, H (2008). Stock Market and Exchange Rates Interactions with Respect to Oil Shocks. Iranian Journal of Economic research, 12(37), 155-177.
23)  Kilian, L., & Murphy, D. P. (2014). The role of inventories and speculative trading in the global market for crude oil. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 29(3), 454e478.
24)  Kilian, L., & Park, C. (2009). The impact of oil price shocks on the US stock market. International Economic Review, 50(4), 1267e1287.
25)  Lee, Y.-H., Chiou, J.-S., (2011). Oil sensitivity and its asymmetric impact on the stock market. Energy 36, 168–174.
26)  Lux, T., Segnon, M., & Gupta, R. (2015). Modeling and forecasting crude oil price volatility: Evidence from historical and recent data. University of Pretoria, Department of Economics Working Paper Series.
27)  Mamippour, S & Fe’eli, A. (2017). The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Tehran Stock Market at Sector-Level: A Variance Decomposition Approach. Financial Monetary Economics, 24(14), 205-236.
28)  Miller, J. I., & Ratti, R. A. (2009). Crude oil and stock markets: Stability, instability, and bubbles. Energy Economics, 31(4), 559e568.
29)  Mohanty, S. K., Nandha,M., Turkistani, A. Q., & Alaitani, M. Y. (2011). Oil price movements and stock market returns: Evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Global Finance Journal, 22(1), 42e55.
30)  Nandha, M., & Faff, R. (2008). Does oil move equity prices? A global view. Energy Economics, 30(3), 986e997.
31)  Narayan, P. K., & Sharma, S. S. (2011). New evidence on oil price and firm returns. Journal of Banking & Finance, 35(12), 3253e3262.
32)  O'Neill, T. J., Penm, J., & Terrell, R. D. (2008). The role of higher oil prices: A case ofmajor developed countries. In Research in finance (pp. 287e299). Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
33)  Oriakhi, D. E., & Osaze, I. D. (2013). Oil price volatility and its consequences on the growth of the Nigerian economy: An examination (1970e2010). Asian Economic and Financial Review, 3(5), 683e702.
34)  Park, J., & Ratti, R. A. (2008). Oil price shocks and stock markets in the US and 13 European countries. Energy Economics, 30(5), 2587e2608.
35)  Rahnamay Roodposhty, F., Tajmir Riyahi, H., Esmaeeli Atooie, S., Feizollah Zadeh, M. (2012). Comparative Analysis of Oil Price and Exchange Rate Volatility in Industries Return Relating to Petroleum Based on Arbitrage Pricing Theory and Dynamic Regression Model. Journal of Investment Knowledge, 1 (1): 43-64.
36)  Sadorsky, P. (2001). Risk factors in stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies. Energy Economics, 23(1), 17e28.
37)  Scholtens, B., & Yurtsever, C. (2012). Oil price shocks and European industries. Energy Economics, 34(4), 1187e1195.
38)  Shahbazi, K., Rezaei, E., Salehi,Y(2013). The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Stock Returns of Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). Financial Knowledge of Securities Analysis, 6 (2):125-136.
39)  Soyemi, K. A., Akingunola, R. O.-O., and Ogebe, J. (2017). Effects of oil price shock on stock returns of energy firms in nigeria. Kasetsart Journal of Social Sciences, 40(1):24-31
40)  Yahyazadehfar, M., Laremi, J., Faramarzi, R. (2011). The effect of oil price and income shocks on stocks’ real return in listed companies of Tehran Stocks Exchange. Accounting and auditing studies. 1 (2):1-33.
41)  Zaroki, S., Motameni, M., Fathollahzadeh, A. (2018). The Effect of the Global Oil Price on Value of the Petrochemical Industry in Iran with NARDL Approach. Iranian Energy Economics, 7(27), 101-132.
42)  Mirhashemi Dehnavi M. (2016) The Asymmetric Effect of Oil Price Shock on Stock Market: Evidence from Oil Exporting Countries. quarterly journal of fiscal and Economic policies. 3 (11) :85-108.