Forecasting Tehran Price Index (TEPIX) Using Novel Meta-Heuristic Algorithms

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Finance, Faculty of Management, Khatam University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Ph.d Candidate, Department of Financial Management, Faculty of Management and

3 Ph.d Candidate, Department of Financial Management, Faculty of Management and Economics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

The stock market involves risks and returns that, if forecasted correctly, can lead to profitability, and for this forecasting, appropriate methods are needed. It is affected by various parameters and needs a way to identify these parameters well and have a dynamic nature. The main goal of this article is forecasting Tehran Price Index (TEPIX) by using hybrid Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based on Genetic Algorithm (GA), Harmony Search (HS) particle Swarm Optimization algorithm (PSO) Moth Flame Optimization (MFO) and Whale Optimization algorithms. GA is used as feature selection. So, PSO, HS MFO and WOA are used to determine the number of input and hidden layers. We use the daily values of the stock price index of the Tehran Stock Exchange from 2013 to 2018 in order to forecasting price and test it. The accuracy of ANN, hybrid Artificial Neural Network with HS, PSO MFO and WOA is evaluated based on different loss functions such as MSE, MAE and etc. the results show that the predictability of Meta-heuristic algorithms in testing period is higher than normal ANN. Also, the predictability of hybrid WOA is higher than hybrid PSO and HS algorithms and MFO.

Keywords

References

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International Journal of Finance & Managerial Accounting
Volume 8, Issue 28 - Serial Number 28
January 2023
Pages 185-216

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