Identification and role of environmental factors affecting the movement of the three levels of stock prices using fuzzy technique

Document Type : Original Article


1 Department of Accounting, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran

2 Department of Accounting, Lahijan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Lahijan, Iran



The intervention of the government and the presence of political figures and parallel to that monetary policy is a set of decisions and measures used by the monetary and government authorities to influence economic activities and increase stock price levels by trying to maintain balance and not create price bubbles. The purpose of this research is to identify the environmental factors caused by political communication and monetary policy using the fuzzy technique and its role in the movement process of the three levels of stock prices. The research sample includes 143 companies from the companies accepted in the Tehran Stock Exchange, which covers a seven-year period from the beginning of 2014 to the end of 2021. The results show that there is a positive and significant relationship between the factors identified as environmental factors and the three levels of stock prices. Achieving this result strengthens the argument that if political connections are important in determining the price of companies' shares and, in parallel, the value of companies; should be systematically reflected in the stock market. Also, the results show that the effect of monetary policy on the high level of stock prices is more than the low level of stock prices and does not affect the average levels of stock prices. The results indicate that if the government implements an expansionary monetary policy, there is more available credit and economic activity will flourish.


  • Arifur Khan Dessalegn Getie Mihret Mohammad Badrul Muttakin, (2016),”Corporate political connections, agency costs and audit quality”, International Journal of Accounting & Information Management, Vol. 24 Iss 4 pp.
  • Asefi, Neda;Karimi, Zahra;Haghighat, Jafar;Barqi Oskoi, Mohammad Mehdi (2022).The effect of monetary policy on financial development through the asset price channel.Economic growth and development research quarterly, 12(46), spring.
    Bao, Z., Guo, J., Xie, Y., & Zhang, W. (2020). Model for stock price trend prediction based
    on LSTM and GA. Comput Sci, 47, 467–473.
  • Boldyerv, I., & Ushakov, A. (2016). Adjusting the model to adjust the world: Constructive
    mechanisms in postwar general equilibrium theory. Journal of Economic Methodology,
    23(1), 38–56.
  • Broome, J. (2018). Efficiency and future generations. Economics and Philosophy, 34(2),
  • Callado, A., & Leit ̃ao, C. (2018). Dynamics of stock prices and market efficiency.
    International Business Research, 11(6), 29.
  • Chuanjun Zhao, Meiling Wu, Jingfeng Liu, Zening Duan, Jie li, Lihua Shen,
    Xuekui Shangguan, Donghang Liu, Yanjie Wang (2023). Progress and prospects of data-driven stock price forecasting research. International Journal of Cognitive Computing in Engineering 4 (2023) 100–108.

7)     Clemensc.struck (2022). Wealth, price levels, and product quality. International Economics. Volume 170, August 2022, Pages 32-48.

  • Coleman, L. (2021). Issues relating to the ontology, epistemology and philosophy of equity
    pricing research [Internet]. Melbourne: University of Melbourne [cited 15 October
    2021]. Available from:
  • Esmaili, Hamed;Rezaei, Farzin;Mohammadi Nodeh, Fazel;Vatanparast, Mohammad Reza.(2021).Measuring the uncertainty in keeping cash due to the mismatch between macroeconomic policies and accounting policies, Auditing Knowledge, 21(82), Spring, pp. 476-447.

10)  Fan, G. &Wang, X. (2006). Marketization index for China’s provinces. China: National Economic Research Institute.

11)  Fang Liu., Muhammad Umair, Junjun Gao (2023). Assessing oil price volatility co-movement with stock market volatility through quantile regression approach. Resources Policy. Volume 81, March 2023, 103375

  • Fan, J. P. H., Rui, O. M. & Zhao, M. (2008). Public governance and corporate finance: Evidence from corruption cases. Journal of Comparative Economics, 36, 343–364.
  • Li, Y.D, Iscan .T, Xu. K. (2015). The Impact of Monetary Policy on Stock Price: Evidence from Canada and The United States. International Money and Finance, 29, 876 – 896.
  • Lin, K. J., Karim, E. K. & Carter, C. (2015). Why does China’s stock market have highly synchronous stock price movements? An information supply perspective Advances in Accounting, 31(1), 68-791.
  • Liu, Q., Tao, Z., Tse, Y., & Wang, C. (2022b). Stock market prediction with deep learning:
    The case of China. Finance Research Letters, 46, Article 102209.
  • Zuriani Mustaffa a,∗, Mohd Herwan Sulaiman (2023). Stock price predictive analysis: An application of hybrid Barnacles Mating Optimizer with Artificial Neural Network. International Journal of Cognitive Computing in Engineering 4 .109–117
  • Najafian, Parisa (2022).Examining the relationship between political relations, stock price concurrency and cost of debt in companies.Applied researches in management and accounting, 7(52), spring, pp. 1-13.
  • Nicolas Maloumian (2022).Unaccounted forms of complexity: A path away from the efficient markethypothesis paradigm. Social Sciences & Humanities Open 5 (2022) 100244.

19)  Rainer Maurer (2022). Price levels in the European Monetary Union: Even tradables follow independent random walks. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money. Volume 81, November 2022, 101654

  • Roodpashti Rahnama, Fereydon;Mohseni, Abdul Reza (2017).Political connections, cash dividends and stock returns in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange.Scientific Research Quarterly of Financial Knowledge of Securities Analysis, 11(38).
  • Sobhanipour, Mina;Zare, Hashem;Ebrahimi, Mehrzad (2022).Investigating the impact of passive monetary policies on the stock price index (using the Markov switching model).Journal of development and capital.7(2). 151-131.

22)  T. ma, P.A.F. Fraser-mackenzie, M.sung, A.P.kansara, J.E.V. Johnson (2022). Are the least successful traders those most likely to exit the market? A survival analysis contribution to the efficient market debate. European Journal of Operational Research. Volume 299, Issue 1, 16 May 2022, Pages 330-345

  • Zinivand, Abdullah;Mohammadi, Ghofran;Ghobishavi, Abdul Khaliq;Abdulahi, Fereshte (2017).Investigating the effect of monetary policy and the general price level through the asset price channel on the stock price bubble in Iran.Quantitative Economics Quarterly, 15(1), spring, pp. 1-26.