International Journal of Finance & Managerial Accounting

International Journal of Finance & Managerial Accounting

Analyzing the Effect of Economic Sanctions on Monetary Variables of the Iranian Economy

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Mahdi Abdollahpour 1
Seyyed Farzad Hashemi 2
Mohsen Shahhosseini 2
1 PhD Student, Department of Financial Management, Shahr-e-Qods Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Mathematics, Shahr-e-Qods Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/ijfma.2025.78141.2212
Abstract
the present study has analyzed the effect of economic sanctions on monetary variables in the Iranian economy. In this regard, the structural autoregressive model has been used for the years 1979 to 2021. Based on the results of the SVAR model estimation, a shock from economic sanctions (assuming that other factors remain constant) causes an increase in inflation and interest rates. Based on the estimation results of the SVAR model, a shock from economic sanctions (assuming that other factors remain constant) causes an increase in inflation and interest rates by 78 and 83 percent, respectively. The models were implemented in the EViews version 10 software, and after examining the variables, the optimal lag of the VAR model was determined and then the final research model was created. Using two main diagnostic tests, which are the use of instantaneous response functions (IRF) and variance analysis, the output results of the models were analyzed and interpreted. Interpretation of the model results and findings indicate the impact of sanctions on the research variables, and as a result of the positive shock, the sanctions variable responded positively and increased, and after a few periods, the trend decreased again and the effect of the shock was eliminated. This situation arises due to the stationarity of the research variables, but the way it occurs is different for monetary and financial variables, and in addition, financial variables succeed in eliminating the effect of sanctions over a longer period.
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