International Journal of Finance & Managerial Accounting

International Journal of Finance & Managerial Accounting

Designing an Investor Decision-Making Model in the Tehran Stock Exchange Based on Quantum Probability Theory

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
saeed sadeqkhani 1
Ghareibeh Esmailikia 2
Masoud Sayedi 2
Omid Mahmoodi Khoshroo 3
1 Department of Accounting,Sa.C., Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj, Iran
2 Department of Accounting, IlamUniversity, Ilam, Iran
3 Department of Accounting, Sanandaj.C., Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj, Iran.
10.22034/ijfma.2025.78851.2318
Abstract
One of the fundamental challenges in capital markets is identifying investor decision-making patterns under uncertainty. Investment decisions are usually analyzed through classical probabilistic models, while numerous studies show that investors often deviate from rational patterns and are subject to behavioral biases, ambiguity, and high volatility. In this context, quantum probability theory, as a novel framework, has been able to explain nonlinear and contradictory patterns of human decision-making better than classical models, through concepts such as superposition, entanglement, and the uncertainty principle. Accordingly, this research aims to design an investor decision-making model in the Tehran Stock Exchange based on quantum probability theory. This study applies a mixed-method approach (qualitative–quantitative). In the qualitative phase, 125 domestic and international studies were systematically reviewed to identify the key indicators affecting investor decisions. In the quantitative phase, fuzzy Delphi was applied with the participation of 18 capital market experts to validate the indicators. Then, the relationships among the indicators were analyzed using DEMATEL and Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM), and their hierarchical positions in decision-making levels were determined. Findings revealed that “level of uncertainty,” “stock price volatility, and “investor confidence in disclosed information” have the highest impact on investor behavior. The final model showed that under Iranian market conditions, quantum probability theory is capable of explaining phenomena such as overreaction and herding behavior, which cannot be interpreted through classical probability approaches. The results of this study not only extend the frontiers of behavioral finance but also provide practical implications for capital market policymakers, stockbrokers,and individual investors
Keywords
Investor decision-making
Quantum probability theory
Uncertainty
ISM modeling
Fuzzy Delphi
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